What moves the Nikkei? It's all hindsight

Everything you find is written afterwards

Search "what moves the Nikkei" and you get two kinds of answer.

One is the broker explainer: eight factors laid out for you — currency, US equities, central banks, earnings, commodities, policy, sentiment, flows. Every one of them is reasonable.

The other is the news: it moved this much today, and here is a reason.

Both are written after the fact. It moved first, and then someone told you why.

That does not make them wrong. It makes them answers to a question in the past tense.

Hindsight cannot help the you of tomorrow

Tomorrow morning you sit down with a chart in front of you. At that moment you have one decision to make: should I take this or not.

Hindsight cannot answer that. It can tell you why it moved yesterday. It cannot tell you whether this candle counts.

And there is a worse problem: hindsight makes you feel like you understand.

You finish an article called "three reasons the Nikkei fell today" and you walk away holding a direction. Next morning you bring that direction to the chart — and now you are not reading the chart, you are looking for the evidence you came for.

Bring an answer with you and you will always find it. That is why so many people do their homework and still lose.

What the news answers, what the three things answer

	The question it answers	When it is useful
News and factor lists	Why it moved	Afterwards — understanding the market, building background
The three things (candle, direction, momentum)	Should I take this now	The moment you are sitting in front of the chart

The two do not conflict, but neither one replaces the other.

We look at three things: candle, direction, momentum. All three line up and we go in. They do not, we wait.

This does not tell you why it rises or falls. It answers one thing: does this picture qualify for an entry.

If it does not qualify, you wait. Waiting is not wasted time — waiting saves you a trade you should not have taken.

So should you ignore the news completely?

You can read it, as long as you know what you are reading.

News is background, not a signal. Knowing what the market is nervous about, and deciding whether to take this trade, are two different jobs.

The line is simple: if reading a headline makes you want to place an order, that headline is doing you harm.

The morning chart already has last night written on it. Your job is to read it, not to predict it. Which hours are worth reading is in this one: What time is the Nikkei 225 (JPN225) suitable to trade in Malaysia?

What actually happened that week, Teddy covers in the weekly live.

Common questions

Do I need to understand the Japanese economy?

Not well enough to write a report on it. What trading asks of you is the ability to read what is happening on the chart now, not to explain why it happened.

Can I trade when major news comes out?

Volatility at those times is usually messy — fast, back and forth, no rhythm. Being able to trade is not the same as being suitable to trade. We look at whether volatility is steady, not whether it is big. Our advice is to stop two hours before an important data release and not trade. The chart in that window cannot be relied on. Wait until it is out and the rhythm comes back.

Why don't you publish daily market analysis?

Because it would become another form of hindsight, and it would train you to wait for someone else's answer. We would rather spend that time teaching you to read the chart yourself.

Why the Nikkei and not another index?

Not because it is easier money. Because it has more than one window that suits trading, so it fits more people's schedules. Written up here: Why we focus on the Nikkei JPN225

Knowing why it moved and knowing whether to take this trade are two different kinds of knowing. The first lets you explain yourself. The second keeps you around longer.

Watch Teddy's weekly live

We do not guarantee returns. We do not trade on anyone's behalf. This is market education, not personal investment advice. Working through this properly takes at least three months of sustained effort. Markets carry the risk of loss — decide what you can afford to risk before you begin.